STRATEGIC PLAN
Three Pictures of Alternative Futures
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The group identified three sets of conditions for development - essentially developing three different pictures of the future, based on different conditions of the variables operating over the next five years. This process involved a number of steps. First, is determining three sets of variable conditions which logically might occur together. After discussion, the following sets of conditions were developed:
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- By the end of 2005, all transactions in the industry are over the Internet - purchasing, delivery documentation, invoicing and payment are all electronic. International UPS delivery makes small shipments affordable.
- Throw-away values come to dominate society, as the cost of replacement continues to shrink relative to the cost of repairing equipment.
- While much research continues, no electric motor capable of handling the demands of this industry is developed by 2005.
- Free trade with China is declared in 2000.
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- Acceptance of Internet-based commerce is limited. Most OEM to distributor transactions are electronic, but by 2005, only a limited number of dealers can complete electronic transactions with their suppliers.
- Conservation values come to dominate society as concerns for air and water quality continue to increase. Decisions to re-use rather than replace become the only socially acceptable way to operate at home or as a business.
- An electric motor capable of handling our industry's demand load is introduced in 2002.
- A Laser mowing system is introduced in 2003.
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- As in Scenario A, by the end of 2005, all transactions in the industry are over the Internet - purchasing, delivery documentation, invoicing and payment are all electronic. International UPS delivery makes small shipments affordable.
- The tension between throw-away and conservation values continues with no clearly dominant winner. Society and the industry see some expressions of both value sets.
- A battery-powered electric motor capable of handling the toughest equipment tasks, and light enough to be adaptable to nearly all our products, is introduced in 2002.
- A grass which stops growing at a height of 2" is introduced by Monsanto in 2003.
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With these conditions in hand, participants split into three working development groups, each assigned to develop one of the scenarios. After carefully thinking through the implications for the industry if each of these conditions existed over the next five years, each group wrote a story about how the future would unfold over these five years. Finally, from the perspective of 2005, and blessed with 20-20 hindsight, each group asked, "What strategies should OPEAA have followed, beginning in 2000, to prosper under this scenario?" The answers to that question by scenario are:
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Scenario A Success Strategies
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- Commit to developing and supporting business-to-business Internet systems immediately.
- Promote the proliferation of low-end products that will require more parts (and larger parts modules) to keep them running.
- Expand the membership beyond distributors and light manufacturers - court the OEM manufacturers instead of fighting them.
- Assist members to learn more about the culture and capabilities of potential suppliers in China and other free-trade areas.
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Scenario B Success Strategies
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- OPEAA must help its members get closer to dealers - help find ways to serve dealers better, form alliances with dealer organizations, or including dealers as members may be appropriate. Whatever it takes to tie dealers to current members, so both can prosper in a difficult future.
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Scenario C Success Strategies
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- Establish a technical committee to benchmark Internet technologies and learn how OPEAA can help members adopt them as quickly as possible. By 2002, create a functioning e-market for the industry - one which offers a growing revenue source to the Association by providing critical market services to users, both up and down the distribution chain. By 2005, OPEAA is the critical player in this industry's electronic marketplace.
- Gather and disseminate information on what is happening in the industry - unit and dollar volumes via different channels, and the like. By 2005, industry reports are available to members on a routine basis, giving them the information leverage to lead the industry.
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The Outdoor Power Equipment Aftermarket Association
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